Eliot Rodgers, Ryan Chamberlain &
Life In A Sterile Concourse
We've now learned that Ryan Chamberlain did in fact have the (separated) precursors for a bomb in his San Francisco apartment. The list of components provided by the FBI included batteries, unspecified “green” explosive powder, ball bearings, a model rocket motor, a glass jar and a circuit board. These are just about the complete components necessary for an improvised explosive device (IED), colloquially known as a bomb.
As I speculated yesterday, when the FBI found the components for the bomb, they were not assembled and therefore not a danger to explode. The “green powder” is likely as we theorized yesterday; a green “smokeless powder.” Smokeless powder is used by hunters and target shooters to load their own ammunition to save money. It is available over the counter, and legal to purchase and possess in quantities up to 50 pounds. Therein lies the rub for the FBI. Nothing on the list they provided to the press was illegal to own in and of itself. However, I believe that the combination of these items in a single place would constitute proof that an IED was being constructed, which is illegal.
In the FBI, I worked on interdicting these types of threats and I believe that we were able to save lives by preventing planned attacks such as we've seen for the past two decades. But not all of them. Most perpetrators amassed explosives, and most planned to use (or actually used) legally obtained materials, such as ammonium nitrate, fireworks (black powder) as used in the Boston Marathon bombings, or smokeless powder.
The key in identifying and predicting future violence, however, lies not in the weapon of choice. This is simply because a person who might have lived 40 years normally, suddenly divorces, goes bankrupt, has a spouse die, loses their job, develops late-onset schizophrenia or combinations of all of them. Suddenly, a person like Chamberlain experiences several deep and painful losses and they become morose and “scary” within a few months, after 40 years of functionality. Someone who was at no risk to own a firearm (or smokeless powder, or knives, or a car, or a hammer) last year, suddenly becomes an extreme risk to have them this year. There is no possible way to keep all means of violence away from people determined to kill. The Isla Vista killer prior to Eliot Rodger, David Attias (ironically, also the son of a movie director), killed four and critically wounded a fifth with his weapon of choice: A 1991 Saab 900 Turbo, which was legally purchased and which he was licensed to operate. Cars, like guns, are heavily regulated.
Society changes after every disaster. After hijackings in the 1970’s, Americans began to step through magnetometers. Immediately following September 11, 2001, the U.S. created Homeland Security, TSA and enacted The Patriot Act. Subsequent to the attempted shoe bombing, we now have to take off our shoes to fly on airliners or enter some government buildings. Following the Columbine H.S. shootings, students began to walk through metal detectors.
In the post- Eliot Rodger and Sandy Hook world, I suspect that we are turning another corner, and the FBI presence in the Russian Hill neighborhood last weekend is a sign of our new times. To me, it’s an encouraging yet sad sign. It’s encouraging because at least one agency is taking seriously the obvious emotional decay and social media threats of compromised individuals. It’s sad because it marks yet another incident which will force non-violent Americans jump through more hoops.
For all of us to be safe from these types of crimes, we obviously have to begin interdicting them. And interdicting them depends not just on regulation of legally purchased items like guns, knives, model rocket motors or cars, but on the mental condition of individuals. I am not advocating for dangerous items to be universally available without restriction. On the contrary, I wonder how somebody with such obvious mental/emotional defects as Eliot Rodger was allowed to purchase a firearm of any type, in violation of existing laws. But even if he had been stopped from purchasing a firearm, it would not have helped his three roommates who he killed with a knife and a hammer. How many knives and hammers are in your homes?
Eliot Rodgers posted his plans, his pain and his dysfunction on social media far enough in advance of his attack that it was likely preventable. He had a long history of serious mental illness—to the point that his parents feared that he would kill himself or be a danger to others. Santa Barbara Sheriff’s Officers were called to do a “welfare check” on him in the days before the shooting. Yet, inexplicably, they made no check to even see if he owned weapons before the welfare check, because, according to a spokesperson, “The issue of weapons did not come up.” That rings false to me because weapons checks are made before the officers knock on doors. It does you no good to check after you've been shot through a front door you just knocked on. Obviously, the situation was not taken seriously even before the deputies arrived at the residence. I do not believe they were being careless. I believe they were likely jaded from so many false alarms throughout their careers.
Ryan Chamberlain had little if any history of mental illness. But when his world came crashing down around him, he also posted his pain and his dysfunction on social media. This time, however, somebody paid attention—and we learned that he apparently was making a bomb. Had this not been interdicted, what might the next headlines have been?
For these types of attacks to be stopped, the world is going to look a lot less like two uniformed officers knocking on a college student’s door, and a lot more like an army of FBI agents descending on a city block with vans, weapons, bomb trucks and hazmat suits.
And this is good. And this is sad because it turns out that we are our brothers’ keeper. But it works, and it feels better than living in a sterile concourse.
As I speculated yesterday, when the FBI found the components for the bomb, they were not assembled and therefore not a danger to explode. The “green powder” is likely as we theorized yesterday; a green “smokeless powder.” Smokeless powder is used by hunters and target shooters to load their own ammunition to save money. It is available over the counter, and legal to purchase and possess in quantities up to 50 pounds. Therein lies the rub for the FBI. Nothing on the list they provided to the press was illegal to own in and of itself. However, I believe that the combination of these items in a single place would constitute proof that an IED was being constructed, which is illegal.
In the FBI, I worked on interdicting these types of threats and I believe that we were able to save lives by preventing planned attacks such as we've seen for the past two decades. But not all of them. Most perpetrators amassed explosives, and most planned to use (or actually used) legally obtained materials, such as ammonium nitrate, fireworks (black powder) as used in the Boston Marathon bombings, or smokeless powder.
The key in identifying and predicting future violence, however, lies not in the weapon of choice. This is simply because a person who might have lived 40 years normally, suddenly divorces, goes bankrupt, has a spouse die, loses their job, develops late-onset schizophrenia or combinations of all of them. Suddenly, a person like Chamberlain experiences several deep and painful losses and they become morose and “scary” within a few months, after 40 years of functionality. Someone who was at no risk to own a firearm (or smokeless powder, or knives, or a car, or a hammer) last year, suddenly becomes an extreme risk to have them this year. There is no possible way to keep all means of violence away from people determined to kill. The Isla Vista killer prior to Eliot Rodger, David Attias (ironically, also the son of a movie director), killed four and critically wounded a fifth with his weapon of choice: A 1991 Saab 900 Turbo, which was legally purchased and which he was licensed to operate. Cars, like guns, are heavily regulated.
Society changes after every disaster. After hijackings in the 1970’s, Americans began to step through magnetometers. Immediately following September 11, 2001, the U.S. created Homeland Security, TSA and enacted The Patriot Act. Subsequent to the attempted shoe bombing, we now have to take off our shoes to fly on airliners or enter some government buildings. Following the Columbine H.S. shootings, students began to walk through metal detectors.
In the post- Eliot Rodger and Sandy Hook world, I suspect that we are turning another corner, and the FBI presence in the Russian Hill neighborhood last weekend is a sign of our new times. To me, it’s an encouraging yet sad sign. It’s encouraging because at least one agency is taking seriously the obvious emotional decay and social media threats of compromised individuals. It’s sad because it marks yet another incident which will force non-violent Americans jump through more hoops.
For all of us to be safe from these types of crimes, we obviously have to begin interdicting them. And interdicting them depends not just on regulation of legally purchased items like guns, knives, model rocket motors or cars, but on the mental condition of individuals. I am not advocating for dangerous items to be universally available without restriction. On the contrary, I wonder how somebody with such obvious mental/emotional defects as Eliot Rodger was allowed to purchase a firearm of any type, in violation of existing laws. But even if he had been stopped from purchasing a firearm, it would not have helped his three roommates who he killed with a knife and a hammer. How many knives and hammers are in your homes?
Eliot Rodgers posted his plans, his pain and his dysfunction on social media far enough in advance of his attack that it was likely preventable. He had a long history of serious mental illness—to the point that his parents feared that he would kill himself or be a danger to others. Santa Barbara Sheriff’s Officers were called to do a “welfare check” on him in the days before the shooting. Yet, inexplicably, they made no check to even see if he owned weapons before the welfare check, because, according to a spokesperson, “The issue of weapons did not come up.” That rings false to me because weapons checks are made before the officers knock on doors. It does you no good to check after you've been shot through a front door you just knocked on. Obviously, the situation was not taken seriously even before the deputies arrived at the residence. I do not believe they were being careless. I believe they were likely jaded from so many false alarms throughout their careers.
Ryan Chamberlain had little if any history of mental illness. But when his world came crashing down around him, he also posted his pain and his dysfunction on social media. This time, however, somebody paid attention—and we learned that he apparently was making a bomb. Had this not been interdicted, what might the next headlines have been?
For these types of attacks to be stopped, the world is going to look a lot less like two uniformed officers knocking on a college student’s door, and a lot more like an army of FBI agents descending on a city block with vans, weapons, bomb trucks and hazmat suits.
And this is good. And this is sad because it turns out that we are our brothers’ keeper. But it works, and it feels better than living in a sterile concourse.